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Filling the gap

A perfect storm of tighter regulation and problematic historical loans is putting the crunch on bank lending. This offers an opportunity in 2018 for other non-bank providers to step in, says Alcentra’s Paul Hatfield.

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The future of Libor?

Few benchmarks can have been subject to as much debate as Libor - the London Interbank Offered Rate. On 1 February 2014, after a series of regulatory interventions, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) transferred oversight to the US Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Benchmark Administration to provide a stronger governance framework.

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Rinse and repeat… indefinitely

The story of the post-global financial crisis world has been one of crisis… response… improvement… complacency (CRIC), then repeat, says Iain Stewart, Real Return team, Newton. But can central banks ever break free from their stock response to financial economic stress?

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A total eclipse?

Since the 1990s, US technology companies have had the edge in the race for global internet leadership. In 2018, that could change, says Siguler Guff co-founder, Drew Guff.

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Fighting Fires

America’s midterm elections, Italy’s Five Star Movement and Brexit have the potential to amplify geopolitical risks in the year ahead. Have investors become too complacent about their potential impact on markets, asks Mellon Capital’s Sinead Colton?

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The ‘everything’ bubble

Central bankers would like investors to believe they can withdraw monetary stimulus and normalise interest rates in 2018 without negative consequences. That view is naive, says Newton’s Nick Clay.

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Finding the upside in falling prices

From Europe to the US, central banks are on a mission to normalise monetary policy in 2018. But for Newton global strategist Brendan Mulhern, their fixation on inflation data as a gauge of economic health is a bad case of mistaken thinking.

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Reform matters

The Trump administration wants to radically alter the US regulatory landscape. Here, The Boston Company’s John Bailer argues that more pro-growth, pro-business policies would be positive for stock returns in 2018, but thinks even without them the outlook is bullish for US equities.

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The renewables revolution

The renewables sector is undergoing fundamental change, as investors consider a future without the support of government subsidies. Here Newton’s Paul Flood asks whether falling wind and solar costs could spur even greater investment in 2018.

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High risers

With valuations for US commercial real estate at all-time highs, a focus on first-lien debt and bridge loans could make sense for investors in search of attractive opportunities in 2018, says Sandeep Bordia, head of research and analytics, Amherst Capital Management.

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A question of renewal

Ageing US infrastructure presents major new growth and investment potential as politicians, planners and investors consider new ways to drive its renewal in 2018, says The Boston Company’s Brock Campbell.

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Industry 4.0 – the robot revolution

The first Industrial Revolution introduced machines into manufacturing. The second saw the emergence of assembly lines. The third brought robots into industry. In recent years there has been much talk of a fourth Industrial Revolution. The team at Walter Scott wanted to get under the bonnet of this nascent technology. Here, it highlights how this may influence businesses in the year ahead, and beyond.

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Focus on: Emerging market fixed income

As central banks continue their programme of policy normalisation, managers from Insight and Standish consider a crucial question: can EM debt continue to offer both high yields and attractive returns?

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Focus on: high yield and global credit

Central bank monetary policy shifts, growth in electronic trading and evolving risk appetites all look set to be key themes for 2018. Here, managers from Insight and Mellon Capital consider the year ahead.

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Diminished responsibility

Emerging markets is a term so widely used it has almost lost its meaning, especially when you consider how influential these ‘emerging’ economies truly are. Here members of Newton’s emerging and Asian equities team look at what the next year may hold for developing economies.

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From the outside looking in (Archived)

Those with a yearning for stability could do worse than choose Japan in 2017, according to BNY Mellon’s Miyuki Kashima.  The year ahead looks bright for the world’s third largest economy, she says.

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Onwards and upwards (Archived)

Increased state intervention – and the greater use by governments of the cheap funding available to the public sector – seems inevitable in 2017 and beyond, says Real Return team leader Iain Stewart. In the minds of policy makers, the transition from low interest rates to no interest rates and the shift from buying government debt (QE) to purchasing other assets appear to represent a logical and seamless progression of monetary policy.

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Riding the rental revolution (Archived)

A booming US rental property sector is attracting new interest from a range of commercial and institutional investors but can this growth be sustained? Here, Amherst Capital Management’s Sandeep Bordia considers the market outlook for 2017.

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Focus on: developed markets fixed income (Archived)

Ongoing central bank interventions, increased political risk and the potential for rising defaults all look set to be key themes for 2017. Here managers from Insight Investment and Standish ask the question: what could the next 12 months have in store for Fixed Income investors in developed market? 

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Focus on: emerging markets fixed income (Archived)

In 2016, tightening US monetary policy and collapsing commodity prices were something of a spanner in the works for emerging markets. Does 2017 offer better prospects for fixed income investors? Here, managers from Newton, Standish and Insight consider opportunities in the world’s emerging markets for the next year

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 Emerging Qanda

Focus on: global fixed income (Archived)

For sovereign corporate debt investors, 2016 offered its fair share of surprises – not least an unexpected vote for Brexit, a rancorous US election and a world of central bank-fuelled negative yields. But could 2017 offer more of the same? Here, fund managers from Insight Investment and Newton give their views on the likely opportunities and challenges over the next 12 months.

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 Global Qand A

Regime change (Archived)

Despite a steady outpouring of market-moving news over the past year, currencies have largely shrugged off events, causing many investors to expect a new, lower volatility regime in the months ahead. But there are reasons to believe the prospect of higher volatility exists and with it the resumption of currency trends in 2017.

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At the peak (Archived)

Frothy valuations and a crowded fundraising market mean global returns from private equity may fall in 2017, though it is still expected to outperform more traditional asset classes, according to Siguler Guff’s  Ralph Jaeger.

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Globalisation meltdown (Archived)

De-globalisation trends are rife. As governments retrench to focus more domestically and political change continues unabated, Sinead Colton, head of investment strategy at Mellon Capital, discusses key milestones for the year ahead and what they might mean for global markets and investor expectations.

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Rules of engagement (Archived)

Is the UK likely to become more isolated in 2017 and what will this mean for its economic growth? The renegotiation of its trading relationship with the rest of Europe will be a central focus for the year ahead, with uncertainty likely to continue. Here, UK equity manager Christopher Metcalfe discusses what may be in store, highlighting areas of concern and the sectors that may hold opportunities.

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Buyback or pay-out? (Archived)

The US is a market as known for its share buybacks as for its pay-outs. Here John Bailer, US equity income manager at The Boston Company , explores US dividend trends and looks at what income investors might expect in the year ahead. What headwinds do companies face in 2017?

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Disruptive forces (Archived)

With rising global trade barriers, increased uncertainty around the sustained direction of US interest rates and questions over Chinese growth, 2017 could be a watershed year for investors in emerging markets. Here, Rob Marshall-Lee, leader of Newton’s emerging and Asian equity teams, looks at some potential winners and losers.

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The never-ending story (Archived)

Since the global financial crisis, forces of change have buffeted the defences of the European Union (EU), threatening to damage it forever. What does the 2016 chapter have in store?


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External forces (Archived)

UK plc looks set to remain vulnerable to external forces in 2016, with events in China the US and Europe all likely to be key. Here, Newton’s UK equity team looks at the impact of China’s commodity demand on UK ‘mega caps’; healthcare analyst Stephen Rowntree highlights the roadblocks posed by the US for UK pharma; while Newton’s strategist Peter Hensman outlines the potential trade impact of the forthcoming EU referendum.

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The big issue (Archived)

Standish’s Raman Srivastava and Newton’s Khuram Sharih consider how increased issuance in 2016 will impact bond market volatility and appeal.

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The cycle turns (Archived)

Rising volatility, increased leverage and escalating defaults all suggest a challenging backdrop for fixed income in 2016, but do recent data point to a credit cycle tipping point?

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Benefits of the campaign trail (Archived)

A year of political uncertainty lies ahead for the US, creating winners and losers among industries and companies. Here we look at a few of the industries likely to be affected and discuss the challenge of investing in today’s political and economic environment.

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Campaign Trail

The road ahead (Archived)

While the concept of driverless cars once conjured visions of a distant high-tech future, new manufacturing and scientific techniques look set to make their introduction a reality - bringing a potential raft of new social and economic benefits.

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The Road Ahead

London office space remains in high demand (Archived)

While London’s residential property prices may be making the headlines in the UK, it is the capital’s seemingly evergreen office rental market that continues to attract investors from home and abroad. This trend looks set to endure throughout the second half of 2015, according to Alan Supple, managing director, global real estate securities at BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (as UK representative of CenterSquare Investment Management).

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Across the spectrum (Archived)

Against a low interest rate backdrop, Paul Hatfield, chief investment officer and head of the Americas at Alcentra Group, explores the latest developments in the credit and loan market sector.

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Bringing it all back home (Archived)

As the UK coalition government strives to rebalance the national economy, so called ‘reshoring’ looks set to play an increasingly important role in economic recovery, with similar opportunities emerging in the US.

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US energy evolution (Archived)

The US ‘shale revolution’ has reignited talk of the US achieving energy self-sufficiency. While this may be a far-off aspiration, Robin Wehbé, portfolio manager and head of the natural resources research team at The Boston Company Asset Management, explains how investors are likely to see further evolution in the oil and gas industry into 2015.

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Healthy prospects (Archived)

Growing medical demand and a new wave of industry innovation are creating exciting new investment prospects in the US healthcare sector, according to BNY Mellon’s private equity affiliate, Siguler Guff.

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Jab in the arm for healthcare R&D (Archived)

A shift towards more targeted health care treatments, the advent of new technologies, US reforms and Chinese developments make for attractive prospects in the global health care sector. “As people live for longer and lifestyles across developed and emerging markets improve, it is those conditions associated with older age and a richer diet and lifestyles which are becoming greater concerns for society”

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