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From the outside looking in

Those with a yearning for stability could do worse than choose Japan in 2017, according to BNY Mellon’s Miyuki Kashima.  The year ahead looks bright for the world’s third largest economy, she says.

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 T4826 Kashima BNYAM 427 001

Onwards and upwards

Increased state intervention – and the greater use by governments of the cheap funding available to the public sector – seems inevitable in 2017 and beyond, says Real Return team leader Iain Stewart. In the minds of policy makers, the transition from low interest rates to no interest rates and the shift from buying government debt (QE) to purchasing other assets appear to represent a logical and seamless progression of monetary policy.

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 T4826 Stewart Newton 427 002

Riding the rental revolution

A booming US rental property sector is attracting new interest from a range of commercial and institutional investors but can this growth be sustained? Here, Amherst Capital Management’s Sandeep Bordia considers the market outlook for 2017.

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 T4826 Bordia Amherst 427 010

Focus on: developed markets fixed income

Ongoing central bank interventions, increased political risk and the potential for rising defaults all look set to be key themes for 2017. Here managers from Insight Investment and Standish ask the question: what could the next 12 months have in store for Fixed Income investors in developed market? 

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 Developed Qanda

Focus on: emerging markets fixed income

In 2016, tightening US monetary policy and collapsing commodity prices were something of a spanner in the works for emerging markets. Does 2017 offer better prospects for fixed income investors? Here, managers from Newton, Standish and Insight consider opportunities in the world’s emerging markets for the next year

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 Emerging Qanda

Focus on: global fixed income

For sovereign corporate debt investors, 2016 offered its fair share of surprises – not least an unexpected vote for Brexit, a rancorous US election and a world of central bank-fuelled negative yields. But could 2017 offer more of the same? Here, fund managers from Insight Investment and Newton give their views on the likely opportunities and challenges over the next 12 months.

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 Global Qand A

Regime change

Despite a steady outpouring of market-moving news over the past year, currencies have largely shrugged off events, causing many investors to expect a new, lower volatility regime in the months ahead. But there are reasons to believe the prospect of higher volatility exists and with it the resumption of currency trends in 2017.

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At the peak

Frothy valuations and a crowded fundraising market mean global returns from private equity may fall in 2017, though it is still expected to outperform more traditional asset classes, according to Siguler Guff’s  Ralph Jaeger.

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 T4826 Jaeger SG 427 003

Globalisation meltdown

De-globalisation trends are rife. As governments retrench to focus more domestically and political change continues unabated, Sinead Colton, head of investment strategy at Mellon Capital, discusses key milestones for the year ahead and what they might mean for global markets and investor expectations.

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 T4826 Colton Melcap 427 005

Rules of engagement

Is the UK likely to become more isolated in 2017 and what will this mean for its economic growth? The renegotiation of its trading relationship with the rest of Europe will be a central focus for the year ahead, with uncertainty likely to continue. Here, UK equity manager Christopher Metcalfe discusses what may be in store, highlighting areas of concern and the sectors that may hold opportunities.

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 T4826 Metcalfe Newton 427 007

Buyback or pay-out?

The US is a market as known for its share buybacks as for its pay-outs. Here John Bailer, US equity income manager at The Boston Company , explores US dividend trends and looks at what income investors might expect in the year ahead. What headwinds do companies face in 2017?

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 T4826 Bailer Boston 427 004

Disruptive forces

With rising global trade barriers, increased uncertainty around the sustained direction of US interest rates and questions over Chinese growth, 2017 could be a watershed year for investors in emerging markets. Here, Rob Marshall-Lee, leader of Newton’s emerging and Asian equity teams, looks at some potential winners and losers.

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 T4826 Marshall Lee Newton 427 014

The never-ending story (Archived)

Since the global financial crisis, forces of change have buffeted the defences of the European Union (EU), threatening to damage it forever. What does the 2016 chapter have in store?

 

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GE104 The Never Ending Story

External forces (Archived)

UK plc looks set to remain vulnerable to external forces in 2016, with events in China the US and Europe all likely to be key. Here, Newton’s UK equity team looks at the impact of China’s commodity demand on UK ‘mega caps’; healthcare analyst Stephen Rowntree highlights the roadblocks posed by the US for UK pharma; while Newton’s strategist Peter Hensman outlines the potential trade impact of the forthcoming EU referendum.

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The big issue (Archived)

Standish’s Raman Srivastava and Newton’s Khuram Sharih consider how increased issuance in 2016 will impact bond market volatility and appeal.

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GE109 The Big Issue

The cycle turns (Archived)

Rising volatility, increased leverage and escalating defaults all suggest a challenging backdrop for fixed income in 2016, but do recent data point to a credit cycle tipping point?

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GE120 The Cycle Turns

Benefits of the campaign trail (Archived)

A year of political uncertainty lies ahead for the US, creating winners and losers among industries and companies. Here we look at a few of the industries likely to be affected and discuss the challenge of investing in today’s political and economic environment.

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Campaign Trail

The road ahead (Archived)

While the concept of driverless cars once conjured visions of a distant high-tech future, new manufacturing and scientific techniques look set to make their introduction a reality - bringing a potential raft of new social and economic benefits.

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The Road Ahead

London office space remains in high demand (Archived)

While London’s residential property prices may be making the headlines in the UK, it is the capital’s seemingly evergreen office rental market that continues to attract investors from home and abroad. This trend looks set to endure throughout the second half of 2015, according to Alan Supple, managing director, global real estate securities at BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (as UK representative of CenterSquare Investment Management).

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London Commercial Property 400X250

Across the spectrum (Archived)

Against a low interest rate backdrop, Paul Hatfield, chief investment officer and head of the Americas at Alcentra Group, explores the latest developments in the credit and loan market sector.

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Across The Spectrum 400X250

Bringing it all back home (Archived)

As the UK coalition government strives to rebalance the national economy, so called ‘reshoring’ looks set to play an increasingly important role in economic recovery, with similar opportunities emerging in the US.

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Reels

US energy evolution (Archived)

The US ‘shale revolution’ has reignited talk of the US achieving energy self-sufficiency. While this may be a far-off aspiration, Robin Wehbé, portfolio manager and head of the natural resources research team at The Boston Company Asset Management, explains how investors are likely to see further evolution in the oil and gas industry into 2015.

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Gas

Healthy prospects (Archived)

Growing medical demand and a new wave of industry innovation are creating exciting new investment prospects in the US healthcare sector, according to BNY Mellon’s private equity affiliate, Siguler Guff.

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Pills

Jab in the arm for healthcare R&D (Archived)

A shift towards more targeted health care treatments, the advent of new technologies, US reforms and Chinese developments make for attractive prospects in the global health care sector. “As people live for longer and lifestyles across developed and emerging markets improve, it is those conditions associated with older age and a richer diet and lifestyles which are becoming greater concerns for society”

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Jab