Investment Strategy

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Filling the gap

A perfect storm of tighter regulation and problematic historical loans is putting the crunch on bank lending. This offers an opportunity in 2018 for other non-bank providers to step in, says Alcentra’s Paul Hatfield.

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Rinse and repeat… indefinitely

The story of the post-global financial crisis world has been one of crisis… response… improvement… complacency (CRIC), then repeat, says Iain Stewart, Real Return team, Newton. But can central banks ever break free from their stock response to financial economic stress?

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A total eclipse?

Since the 1990s, US technology companies have had the edge in the race for global internet leadership. In 2018, that could change, says Siguler Guff co-founder, Drew Guff.

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Fighting Fires

America’s midterm elections, Italy’s Five Star Movement and Brexit have the potential to amplify geopolitical risks in the year ahead. Have investors become too complacent about their potential impact on markets, asks Mellon Capital’s Sinead Colton?

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The ‘everything’ bubble

Central bankers would like investors to believe they can withdraw monetary stimulus and normalise interest rates in 2018 without negative consequences. That view is naive, says Newton’s Nick Clay.

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Finding the upside in falling prices

From Europe to the US, central banks are on a mission to normalise monetary policy in 2018. But for Newton global strategist Brendan Mulhern, their fixation on inflation data as a gauge of economic health is a bad case of mistaken thinking.

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The renewables revolution

The renewables sector is undergoing fundamental change, as investors consider a future without the support of government subsidies. Here Newton’s Paul Flood asks whether falling wind and solar costs could spur even greater investment in 2018.

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High risers

With valuations for US commercial real estate at all-time highs, a focus on first-lien debt and bridge loans could make sense for investors in search of attractive opportunities in 2018, says Sandeep Bordia, head of research and analytics, Amherst Capital Management.

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A question of renewal

Ageing US infrastructure presents major new growth and investment potential as politicians, planners and investors consider new ways to drive its renewal in 2018, says The Boston Company’s Brock Campbell.

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Industry 4.0 – the robot revolution

The first Industrial Revolution introduced machines into manufacturing. The second saw the emergence of assembly lines. The third brought robots into industry. In recent years there has been much talk of a fourth Industrial Revolution. The team at Walter Scott wanted to get under the bonnet of this nascent technology. Here, it highlights how this may influence businesses in the year ahead, and beyond.

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Focus on: Emerging market fixed income

As central banks continue their programme of policy normalisation, managers from Insight and Standish consider a crucial question: can EM debt continue to offer both high yields and attractive returns?

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Focus on: high yield and global credit

Central bank monetary policy shifts, growth in electronic trading and evolving risk appetites all look set to be key themes for 2018. Here, managers from Insight and Mellon Capital consider the year ahead.

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Diminished responsibility

Emerging markets is a term so widely used it has almost lost its meaning, especially when you consider how influential these ‘emerging’ economies truly are. Here members of Newton’s emerging and Asian equities team look at what the next year may hold for developing economies.

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From the outside looking in (Archived)

Those with a yearning for stability could do worse than choose Japan in 2017, according to BNY Mellon’s Miyuki Kashima.  The year ahead looks bright for the world’s third largest economy, she says.

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Onwards and upwards (Archived)

Increased state intervention – and the greater use by governments of the cheap funding available to the public sector – seems inevitable in 2017 and beyond, says Real Return team leader Iain Stewart. In the minds of policy makers, the transition from low interest rates to no interest rates and the shift from buying government debt (QE) to purchasing other assets appear to represent a logical and seamless progression of monetary policy.

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Riding the rental revolution (Archived)

A booming US rental property sector is attracting new interest from a range of commercial and institutional investors but can this growth be sustained? Here, Amherst Capital Management’s Sandeep Bordia considers the market outlook for 2017.

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Focus on: developed markets fixed income (Archived)

Ongoing central bank interventions, increased political risk and the potential for rising defaults all look set to be key themes for 2017. Here managers from Insight Investment and Standish ask the question: what could the next 12 months have in store for Fixed Income investors in developed market? 

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Focus on: emerging markets fixed income (Archived)

In 2016, tightening US monetary policy and collapsing commodity prices were something of a spanner in the works for emerging markets. Does 2017 offer better prospects for fixed income investors? Here, managers from Newton, Standish and Insight consider opportunities in the world’s emerging markets for the next year

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Focus on: global fixed income (Archived)

For sovereign corporate debt investors, 2016 offered its fair share of surprises – not least an unexpected vote for Brexit, a rancorous US election and a world of central bank-fuelled negative yields. But could 2017 offer more of the same? Here, fund managers from Insight Investment and Newton give their views on the likely opportunities and challenges over the next 12 months.

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Regime change (Archived)

Despite a steady outpouring of market-moving news over the past year, currencies have largely shrugged off events, causing many investors to expect a new, lower volatility regime in the months ahead. But there are reasons to believe the prospect of higher volatility exists and with it the resumption of currency trends in 2017.

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At the peak (Archived)

Frothy valuations and a crowded fundraising market mean global returns from private equity may fall in 2017, though it is still expected to outperform more traditional asset classes, according to Siguler Guff’s  Ralph Jaeger.

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Rules of engagement (Archived)

Is the UK likely to become more isolated in 2017 and what will this mean for its economic growth? The renegotiation of its trading relationship with the rest of Europe will be a central focus for the year ahead, with uncertainty likely to continue. Here, UK equity manager Christopher Metcalfe discusses what may be in store, highlighting areas of concern and the sectors that may hold opportunities.

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Buyback or pay-out? (Archived)

The US is a market as known for its share buybacks as for its pay-outs. Here John Bailer, US equity income manager at The Boston Company , explores US dividend trends and looks at what income investors might expect in the year ahead. What headwinds do companies face in 2017?

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More of the same? (Archived)

Protectionism may be on the rise but the world is so interconnected today it may not be as far-reaching as some expect and many global companies remain well-situated to maintain delivery of sustainable income in 2017, says Newton global income equity manager Nick Clay.

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Disruptive forces (Archived)

With rising global trade barriers, increased uncertainty around the sustained direction of US interest rates and questions over Chinese growth, 2017 could be a watershed year for investors in emerging markets. Here, Rob Marshall-Lee, leader of Newton’s emerging and Asian equity teams, looks at some potential winners and losers.

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The end of monetary policy? (Archived)

As global quantitative easing (QE) increases and interest rates outside the US continue to be cut, Insight Investment’s inflation-linked corporate bond manager, David Hooker, assesses the practicality of monetary policy in the coming year.

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The last 'safe haven' (Archived)

Reversion to mean is a powerful force in markets. For many asset classes currently “priced to perfection” this would represent material losses in 2016. For inflation it could mean significant gains.

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Filling the funding gap (Archived)

The impact of ongoing regulatory change in the banking sector is just one factor likely to drive demand for non-bank lending in the year ahead. Here, Alcentra chief investment officer Paul Hatfield explores the latest market trends, investment opportunities and outlook for the sector in 2016.

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Retreating expectations (Archived)

With global growth in retreat, 2016 looks set to present the world’s central banks with a dilemma: should they continue with QE or will they be looking at new ways of inflating their way out of debt?


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A multi-speed world (Archived)

In a year marked by a series of record highs followed by major sell-offs across asset classes, investors in 2015 could be forgiven for thinking uncertainty was the new normal. Here Mellon Capital’s Vassilis Dagioglu considers some of the possible causes of volatility in 2016.

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Global outlook: Rates, recession and recovery (Archived)

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to raise rates by September, according to economists at Boston-based Standish.The group’s chief investment officer, David Leduc, says US growth will continue for the remainder of 2015 albeit at a slower pace than originally forecast as the headwinds faced in the opening quarter of the year will prove difficult to shrug off entirely.

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Active versus passive nears tipping point (Archived)

As many market indices have romped to all-time highs, faith in active managers to relatively outperform is being tested. But Walter Scott Investment Management argues increasing allocation to passive funds poses a number of potential problems over the long term.

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London office space remains in high demand (Archived)

While London’s residential property prices may be making the headlines in the UK, it is the capital’s seemingly evergreen office rental market that continues to attract investors from home and abroad. This trend looks set to endure throughout the second half of 2015, according to Alan Supple, managing director, global real estate securities at BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (as UK representative of CenterSquare Investment Management).

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Dancing to a different tune (Archived)

Fear and greed drive financial markets: with so much uncertainty with regards to the contrasting economic prospects around the world over the next 12 months, fear currently has the upper hand.

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Having an absolute focus (Archived)

Investors need to choose their absolute return fund wisely as too often many are overly correlated to the equity market and long-only funds, providing little by way of diversification or bond-like volatility, according to Insight fund manager Andy Cawker. Here he discusses why today, in an environment of subdued economic and investment growth, limiting drawdowns has become ever more important.

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Healthy prospects (Archived)

Growing medical demand and a new wave of industry innovation are creating exciting new investment prospects in the US healthcare sector, according to BNY Mellon’s private equity affiliate, Siguler Guff.

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Mexico’s reformation remains on track (Archived)

The rising star of Latin America, Mexico is in the process of undergoing far-reaching and progressive reforms after a period of lacklustre administration in the country. Energy, telecoms, labour and tax are central to these plans but with political infighting delaying their implementation, can the country grasp this opportunity with both hands? Sophia Whitbread, emerging market portfolio manager at Newton, looks at the reforms, the underlying challenges to change and the potential long-term benefits for Mexico.

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Issuance on the rise (Archived)

Paul Hatfield, chief investment officer at Alcentra believes 2014 is an attractive year for senior secured loans with a backdrop of high rates of recovery and low defaults in both the US and Europe.


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Unconventional fix (Archived)

Iain Stewart, who heads Newton’s Real Return team, expects policymakers will continue to walk a tightrope between generating economic growth at almost any cost, and maintaining real interest rates at low enough levels to service liabilities that are unprecedented in peacetime.

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The evolution of absolute return (Archived)

Could a sustained economic recovery render absolute return funds redundant in 2014? Absolutely not, according to BNY Mellon Investment Management. Today there is more emphasis on the journey rather than the end game. There is a swathe of the investment community that doesn’t want too rocky a ride... absolute return investing is coming of age.

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