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Filling the gap

A perfect storm of tighter regulation and problematic historical loans is putting the crunch on bank lending. This offers an opportunity in 2018 for other non-bank providers to step in, says Alcentra’s Paul Hatfield.

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A total eclipse?

Since the 1990s, US technology companies have had the edge in the race for global internet leadership. In 2018, that could change, says Siguler Guff co-founder, Drew Guff.

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High risers

With valuations for US commercial real estate at all-time highs, a focus on first-lien debt and bridge loans could make sense for investors in search of attractive opportunities in 2018, says Sandeep Bordia, head of research and analytics, Amherst Capital Management.

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Diminished responsibility

Emerging markets is a term so widely used it has almost lost its meaning, especially when you consider how influential these ‘emerging’ economies truly are. Here members of Newton’s emerging and Asian equities team look at what the next year may hold for developing economies.

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From the outside looking in (Archived)

Those with a yearning for stability could do worse than choose Japan in 2017, according to BNY Mellon’s Miyuki Kashima.  The year ahead looks bright for the world’s third largest economy, she says.

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Onwards and upwards (Archived)

Increased state intervention – and the greater use by governments of the cheap funding available to the public sector – seems inevitable in 2017 and beyond, says Real Return team leader Iain Stewart. In the minds of policy makers, the transition from low interest rates to no interest rates and the shift from buying government debt (QE) to purchasing other assets appear to represent a logical and seamless progression of monetary policy.

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Rules of engagement (Archived)

Is the UK likely to become more isolated in 2017 and what will this mean for its economic growth? The renegotiation of its trading relationship with the rest of Europe will be a central focus for the year ahead, with uncertainty likely to continue. Here, UK equity manager Christopher Metcalfe discusses what may be in store, highlighting areas of concern and the sectors that may hold opportunities.

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Buyback or pay-out? (Archived)

The US is a market as known for its share buybacks as for its pay-outs. Here John Bailer, US equity income manager at The Boston Company , explores US dividend trends and looks at what income investors might expect in the year ahead. What headwinds do companies face in 2017?

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More of the same? (Archived)

Protectionism may be on the rise but the world is so interconnected today it may not be as far-reaching as some expect and many global companies remain well-situated to maintain delivery of sustainable income in 2017, says Newton global income equity manager Nick Clay.

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Disruptive forces (Archived)

With rising global trade barriers, increased uncertainty around the sustained direction of US interest rates and questions over Chinese growth, 2017 could be a watershed year for investors in emerging markets. Here, Rob Marshall-Lee, leader of Newton’s emerging and Asian equity teams, looks at some potential winners and losers.

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Benefits of the campaign trail (Archived)

A year of political uncertainty lies ahead for the US, creating winners and losers among industries and companies. Here we look at a few of the industries likely to be affected and discuss the challenge of investing in today’s political and economic environment.

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Japan’s productivity paradox (Archived)

Once seen as the crucible of hi-tech approaches to improving productivity, Japan is now better known for its ageing society and persistently anaemic inflation. Under prime minister Shinzo Abe’s latest reforms, however, that could be set to change.

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External forces (Archived)

UK plc looks set to remain vulnerable to external forces in 2016, with events in China the US and Europe all likely to be key. Here, Newton’s UK equity team looks at the impact of China’s commodity demand on UK ‘mega caps’; healthcare analyst Stephen Rowntree highlights the roadblocks posed by the US for UK pharma; while Newton’s strategist Peter Hensman outlines the potential trade impact of the forthcoming EU referendum.

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Unorthodox measures (Archived)

While many developed Western economies resorted to full blown monetary stimulus in the wake of the financial crisis, Asian countries have been more restrained in their policy response. Here, Douglas Reed, emerging markets strategist at Newton, asks whether 2016 could herald a change.

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Active versus passive nears tipping point (Archived)

As many market indices have romped to all-time highs, faith in active managers to relatively outperform is being tested. But Walter Scott Investment Management argues increasing allocation to passive funds poses a number of potential problems over the long term.

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Holding the faith (Archived)

Global market uncertainty is prompting China to find new ways of boosting domestic growth. But, despite the many challenges facing the Chinese government, its economic plans remain broadly on track and ongoing reforms could deliver significant long-term gains, says Amy Leung, a member of Newton’s Asian equity team.

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Bringing it all back home (Archived)

As the UK coalition government strives to rebalance the national economy, so called ‘reshoring’ looks set to play an increasingly important role in economic recovery, with similar opportunities emerging in the US.

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Having an absolute focus (Archived)

Investors need to choose their absolute return fund wisely as too often many are overly correlated to the equity market and long-only funds, providing little by way of diversification or bond-like volatility, according to Insight fund manager Andy Cawker. Here he discusses why today, in an environment of subdued economic and investment growth, limiting drawdowns has become ever more important.

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Mexico’s reformation remains on track (Archived)

The rising star of Latin America, Mexico is in the process of undergoing far-reaching and progressive reforms after a period of lacklustre administration in the country. Energy, telecoms, labour and tax are central to these plans but with political infighting delaying their implementation, can the country grasp this opportunity with both hands? Sophia Whitbread, emerging market portfolio manager at Newton, looks at the reforms, the underlying challenges to change and the potential long-term benefits for Mexico.

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US energy evolution (Archived)

The US ‘shale revolution’ has reignited talk of the US achieving energy self-sufficiency. While this may be a far-off aspiration, Robin Wehbé, portfolio manager and head of the natural resources research team at The Boston Company Asset Management, explains how investors are likely to see further evolution in the oil and gas industry into 2015.

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Making 'Abenomics' work (Archived)

Japan’s employment market is showing signs of better health as a result of wider economic reforms pressed through by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, leading to some managers becoming more positive in their outlook.

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Japan at Inflection Point (Archived)

The recent political and economic turnaround in Japan is only the beginning of a long-term economic recovery, says Miyuki Kashima, head of BNY Mellon Investment Management’s Japan equity team. With an unprecedented political will and support for reform in place, she believes Japan is at a major inflection point.

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Elections take front seat (Archived)

Emerging and Asian markets take centre stage in 2014 and not just because of the Winter Olympics and World Cup; a number of key elections are also likely to draw attention. BNY Mellon’s Emerging Income and Asian Income Fund Managers, Sophia Whitbread and Caroline Keen, talk about what the year may hold.

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Jab in the arm for healthcare R&D (Archived)

A shift towards more targeted health care treatments, the advent of new technologies, US reforms and Chinese developments make for attractive prospects in the global health care sector. “As people live for longer and lifestyles across developed and emerging markets improve, it is those conditions associated with older age and a richer diet and lifestyles which are becoming greater concerns for society”

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Dilma's dilemma (Archived)

Political uncertainty may have subsided following the election but with the Brazilian economy in the doldrums and commentators banging the drum for harsh reforms, what are the prospects for the dilapidated poster-boy of South America?

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US housing stands on firmer ground (Archived)

With the US housing economy still in recovery mode more than six years on from the peak of the financial crisis, what do the coming years have in hold for US housing and what role do the so-called ‘millennials’ have to play in this story? Carl Guerin, research analyst and Raphael Lewis, primary research analyst on The Boston Company’s US Opportunistic Equity team, discuss.

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